Iraqi IED Gauge

Its been a few days since I last posted, but we have been really busy.  Our re-deployment date is visible on the planning calendars now and the command has decided that we need to ramp up operations.  Something about the bad guys knowing when we are due to leave, so they don’t want to let their guard down and give them a chance to get at us.  I really don’t know if its a valid theory, but it sounds good in the Staff Planning Process anyway.  All it means for us poor guys in the trucks is more of the same sleepless nights, multi-day operations, less showers, and more grumpiness all around.

So, I have sort of developed the Iraqi IED gauge. The idea is that you can gauge your chances of coming into enemy contact by where in your combined patrol the IA or the IP are located. I am sure other Coalition soldiers have come to the same conclusion (In fact, I read about 1a somewhere.), and I think its relatively accurate. The only corollary being the unusual true, hardcore Iraqi unit. They skew any results and then the odds are off. Anyway, here is the meter:

Assume standard coaltion patrol.
1. Iraqi Police in Front of Coalition vehicles.
   • Way in front of Patrol. Say, on the horizon and moving fast. Chances are pretty good you’ll get ambushed, but low for IEDs. The IPs are rampant with insurgents and insurgent sympathizers. So if they stay on the road, you know there are no IEDs, but that far ahead, they are staying clear of possible small arms.
   • Directly in front, or leading the patrol. You are completely safe.(Corollary exception applies) Reason? See above.
2. Iraqi Police in middle of patrol. 50-50 chance. Means they aren’t sure if its safe, so they’ll let the big bad US in the up-armored humvees be the guinea pigs.
3. Iraqi Police behind you. Watch out! They probably know something is up for reasons mentioned in 1a.
4. Can’t get the IPs to show. Unknown. Either something will happen, or its too hot for them to actually do anything.
5. Iraqi Army in front. Probably don’t know anything, or they are pretty sure its safe. There is less corruption in the IA, but they still have plenty of contacts and cellphones.(Corollary exception applies)
6. IA mixed in patrol. Same as 2 above.
7. IA behind you. Keep an eye out as they are pretty paranoid to start with and if they won’t lead in their own area, it means they are pretty unsure of the situation.
8. No IA show. Probably decided that a nap or food was more important. Unknown chances.

Mostly around here its 1b, 2, 5, or 6. Sometime we get 3 and 8, so all in all we have mostly a 50-50 chance. Its the other times when you get really nervous.